We give straight market reads and we do not publish price data. On why: the numbers that matter are assessed by agencies under licence, and republishing them would be both wrong and quickly worthless. On what we can do instead, we tell you how a product is actually quoted, what moves it, and why two quotes for the same material are often not comparable at all. Ask us where something is clearing and you get a read, not a number scraped from somewhere.
- 1Bids and offers seen in the market
- 2Cross-checked against published methodology
- 3Adjusted for basis, port and quality
- 4Netback calculated back to the seller
- 5A workable range, not a single figure
We do not republish price agency assessments. What we can do is explain the published methodology behind them and tell you where live bids and offers actually sat against that basis.
Why two quotes for the same product are usually not comparable
Before anyone argues about ten dollars, these five things have to match. In our experience most of the gap between two offers turns out to sit here rather than in the market.
- Incoterm and location. CIF Rotterdam includes freight and insurance to the port. FOB China does not. A FOB number that looks higher can be the cheaper cargo once it lands, and the reverse happens just as often.
- Specification. UCO at 3 % FFA and UCO at 8 % FFA are different products. So are 15 ppm sulphur and 60 ppm when the buyer hydrotreats.
- Certification and counting. The same molecules with and without a valid proof of sustainability are two different commodities. In a capped or multiplier market the certificate can be worth more than the oil.
- Volume, timing and credit. A prompt single parcel prices differently from a twelve month term programme, and payment terms are part of the price whether or not anyone says so.
- Unit and currency. USD per tonne, EUR per tonne, cents per litre, per gigajoule. Conversions between mass, volume and energy hide real money, and we have seen offers compared across units that were never comparable.
| Fuel | MJ/kg | MJ/l |
|---|---|---|
| Pure vegetable oil, crude or refined but chemically unmodified | 37 | 34 |
| Biodiesel, fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) | 37 | 33 |
| Biodiesel, fatty acid ethyl ester (FAEE) | 38 | 34 |
| Hydrotreated oil of biomass origin, replacing diesel (HVO) | 44 | 34 |
| Hydrotreated oil of biomass origin, replacing petrol | 45 | 30 |
| Hydrotreated oil of biomass origin, replacing jet fuel | 44 | 34 |
| Co-processed oil of biomass or pyrolysed biomass origin, replacing diesel | 43 | 36 |
| Diesel, fossil, for comparison | 43 | 36 |
| Bio-propane | 46 | 24 |
| Biogas purified to natural gas quality | 50 | not stated |
The quotes people ask us about
| UCO CIF ARA / Rotterdam | The European import benchmark: used cooking oil delivered into the Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp range, freight and insurance included. Usually quoted against a reference specification, so always ask which. |
|---|---|
| UCO FOB China | Loaded at a Chinese port, buyer carries freight. Since China removed the 13 % export tax rebate on UCO on 1 December 2024, the historic relationship between this quote and CIF ARA has shifted structurally. Do not compare against pre-2025 spreads. See used cooking oil. |
| UCO Italy | Italy runs its own dynamic because of its domestic collection base, its HVO capacity and its national implementation of the renewable fuel rules. Domestic Italian UCO and imported UCO are not the same trade. |
| Acid oil Italy | Priced on total fatty acid content, not on tonnage. A lower headline number on lower TFA is frequently the more expensive material. See acid oils. |
| Pyrolysis oil | There is no established benchmark. Tyre-derived and plastic-derived oil are different markets, fractions price separately, and a cracker-qualified light cut and an untreated full-range oil are not the same product. Anyone quoting a single pyrolysis oil price is quoting something too vague to trade on. See pyrolysis oil. |
| HVO | Quoted against the fossil comparator and against the mandate value in the destination market. Because much European volume is contracted forward against legal obligations, quoted spot levels can be thin and unrepresentative. See HVO. |
| UCOME and FAME | Feedstock, cold flow grade and counting treatment all move the number. A summer grade quote is not a winter grade quote. See FAME biodiesel. |
| Ethanol | Fuel grade against industrial and beverage grade are different markets with different duty treatment. Relevant to us mainly through the co-product side: see fusel oil. |
What actually moves these markets
- Mandates and their national implementation. Demand for waste-based feedstock is created by law, not by preference. When a member state changes its multiplier or its cap, the feedstock price moves before anything physical does.
- The Annex IX Part B cap. Capped at 1.7 % of transport energy per member state. As a market approaches its cap, the marginal tonne is worth less. See Annex IX.
- Trade measures. EU anti-dumping duties on Chinese biodiesel of roughly 10 % to 35.6 % under Regulation (EU) 2025/261 reshaped the import picture.
- Collection economics. Waste feedstock supply is not price elastic in the short run. Restaurants do not fry more because UCO went up.
- Freight and the arbitrage window. Half of what looks like a price move between regions is a freight move.
- Certification availability, which behaves like a separate market on top of the physical one.
Where the value actually sits, and why it is not one number
People ask what UCO costs per tonne, or what animal fat is worth, and the honest answer starts with the fact that a cargo of Annex IX material has two values, not one. There is the physical product, and there is the unit a fuel supplier can count against their national obligation once the material has been turned into fuel and delivered. In most European markets the second one moves more than the first.
That second value is national. It is created by a member state's transport obligation, it is traded in that member state's own unit, and it does not travel across borders. This is the single biggest reason two people can quote the same specification and be a long way apart: they are pricing into different destinations.
| Market | Obligation | Unit and registry |
|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | Brandstoftransitieverplichting, which replaced the Jaarverplichting Energie voor Vervoer on 1 January 2026 as part of the Dutch implementation of RED III. | ERE, which replaced the HBE. Held in the Register Energie Vervoer, supervised by the Nederlandse Emissieautoriteit. |
| Germany | THG-Quote, a greenhouse gas reduction obligation expressed in tonnes of CO2 equivalent rather than in energy. | Quota positions, with the sustainability proofs held in Nabisy. See our Nabisy and the German market page. |
The Dutch system changed underneath the market this year, and it is worth knowing if you are selling into the Netherlands. The Nederlandse Emissieautoriteit lists the changes itself: HBEs became EREs, the obligation now reaches across several transport sectors rather than one, each sector has to decarbonise in its own right, there are limits and sub-targets per sector including a new RFNBO sub-target, the opt in is gone, the multipliers changed, and registration and verification of fuel deliveries became mandatory in a new register. If you last priced a Dutch cargo against the old system, the arithmetic behind it has moved.
So what does that mean when you ask us for a level. It means the first questions back are the specification, the origin, the volume, the destination and the delivery basis, and none of those is us being difficult. Change the destination and you change which obligation the material is being priced into, which changes the answer. Give us those five and you get a read on where the parcel is likely to clear. Ask for a number without them and anything we said would be noise.
The same applies to what certification costs. There is no single figure: the ISCC turnover fee is based on the general turnover of the company rather than on the certified volume, and the audit cost depends on your certification body, your scope and how many points of origin fall into the sample. Our ISCC certification page sets out the drivers, including the sample formula and the surveillance intervals.
Why we will not publish numbers, and what you get instead
Price reporting agencies invest heavily in assessing these markets and license the result. Republishing their numbers on a public website is not something we will do, and any broker who does it is telling you something about how they treat other people's confidential information too.
A published number is also stale the moment it is written, and stale prices start more arguments than they settle.
What we give instead is a live read: where we see business actually clearing for your specification, on your basis, into your destination, today. That costs you nothing and no obligation. If you need a formally assessed published price for a contract clause, you need a price reporting agency subscription, and we will tell you that rather than pretend otherwise.
Frequently asked questions
What is a bid-offer spread telling you?
The distance between buyer and seller expectations, the market's argument measured in euros, wide meaning uncertain, tight meaning decided. The spread is the market arguing with itself politely.
How do futures markets relate to physical?
Paper prices discovering expectations, physical cargo pricing against them, the basis between the two being the trade's actual weather. Futures are the forecast, cargo is the rain.
What is netback pricing?
Working backwards from the product's value to what feedstock can pay, the plant's arithmetic deciding your cargo's ceiling. Netback is the buyer's mirror, useful to stand behind.
Can an index be wrong?
Assessments reflect reported reality, thin markets producing soft numbers, the honest market reading triangulating several. Even benchmarks have Mondays.
What is contango or backwardation here?
The futures curve's slope, later months pricier or cheaper than near, storage and urgency trading the shape. The curve is the market's mood, bent.
Why do buyers quote ranges not prices?
Because the range waits for your analysis, the final number being arithmetic on your certificate, not a mood. The range is an invitation to send the lab report.
What moves feedstock prices most?
Mandate calendars first, energy second, supply shocks third, the hierarchy this decade has proven repeatedly. Policy is the market's biggest warehouse.
Can I get a price indication without an analysis?
A range and a smile, honest brokers say so, because anything firmer would be fiction dressed as service. The analysis is the price ticket, everything else is the poster.
How often do feedstock prices move?
Weekly on references, daily in stress, quietly in between, the rhythm of reports and cargoes. We mark the market when it moves, and sometimes by noticing it hasn't.
Do all waste oils follow the same price?
They move as a family, because buyers can substitute along the fat and oil chain, but the spreads between UCO, tallow, POME and acid oil shift with supply, specification and rule changes. Knowing the family direction is free, knowing the spread is the read.
What is a market read?
Our assessment of where a specific cargo would clear today: the reference prices behind it, the discount or premium your analysis implies, and the buyers currently in that market. It is a number you can negotiate with, not a number we publish and defend.
What biodiesel, fatty acid should prices & market reads meet?
The specification table under Why two quotes for the same product are usually not comparable puts biodiesel, fatty acid at 37. 33
What is the price of UCO CIF Rotterdam today?
We do not publish price assessments, and republishing a price reporting agency's licensed numbers is not something we will do. What we will do, same working day, is give you a live read on where business is clearing for your specification on your basis. Ask, and state the FFA, the MIU, the sulphur, the certification and the volume, because a number without those is not a price.
Why is UCO FOB China sometimes higher than CIF Rotterdam?
Because China removed the 13 % export tax rebate on UCO on 1 December 2024. That rebate was effectively the exporter's margin, so FOB levels had to rise to keep the same netback. The historic relationship between FOB China and CIF ARA shifted structurally, and comparing against pre-2025 spreads produces wrong conclusions.
Is there a benchmark price for pyrolysis oil?
No, and be careful with anyone who quotes one. Tyre-derived and plastic-derived oil are separate markets, fractions price separately, and a cracker-qualified light cut is a completely different product from untreated full-range oil. A single pyrolysis oil price is too vague to trade on.
How should I compare two offers from different origins?
Line up five things before you look at the number: Incoterm and location, specification, certification and counting treatment, volume with timing and credit terms, and unit with currency. Most of the gap between two offers sits in those five rather than in the market.
Why is acid oil quoted on total fatty acid?
Because you are buying the usable fraction, not the drum. A parcel with a lower headline price per tonne but lower TFA is frequently the more expensive material once you work it back to the fatty acid you actually get.
Do you charge for a market read?
No. It is how we start conversations and how we stay useful to people who are not trading with us this week. If it turns into business, we are paid a brokerage commission on the deal, normally carried by one named side and agreed in advance.
Can I use your read as a contract reference price?
No. For a contract clause you need a formally assessed, published price from a price reporting agency with a defined methodology. A broker's read is market colour and it is not designed to carry that weight. We will say so rather than let you write us into a contract clause that will not hold.
Market news
Recent headlines from across the feedstock and renewable fuel sector. Nothing specific to this market has come through the wires lately, so this is the wider view. The links go to the publisher; we do not host or edit their reporting, and a headline here is not our endorsement of it. Scroll for more.
- The Digest’s 2026 Multi-Slide Guide to Pipeline Access for Biofuels
- Scientists urged to crack green hydrogen cost barrier
- Neste and United Airlines extend SAF agreement
- WELTEC BIOPOWER begins construction of 60GW Spanish biomethane plant
- U.S. ethanol exports set new records
- FedEx expanding SAF procurement across five US airports in 2027
- Pertamina seeks ethanol import excise exemption
- Senate advances bill to allow year-round E15
- The Digest’s 2026 Multi-Slide Guide to Regional SAF Distribution
- Research and innovation projects supporting the Circular Economy Act Focus area : extended producer responsibility
- Ecodesign for Sustainable Products Regulation: Stakeholder consultation on the methods for defining classes of performance and labels
- Research and innovation projects supporting the Circular Economy Act, Focus area : circular public procurement
- Ecodesign for Sustainable Products Regulation: Stakeholder consultation on the method for identifying and tracking substances of concern in products
- Birla Carbon to present ‘next-generation carbon solutions’ at Global Polymer Summit 2026
- ‘World’s first hydrogen-fuelled engine for large commercial vessels’ completes land-based testing
- Moeve breaks ground on renewable hydrogen project
- Yokogawa wins order from KHI for hydrogen-fuelled vessels
- Azane and Yara ink ammonia supply agreement
18 headlines, updated automatically. Last refreshed .
Sources and further reading
Primary sources for the rules and figures on this page, so you can check them yourself. Legislation is amended: always read the consolidated text on the date that matters to you.
Who to ask about Prices & market reads
Just ask. Want to know where business is actually clearing today? Ask. A read costs you nothing and it is more useful than a number without a basis. You get Bart van den Brug on the other end, same working day, in English or Dutch, and across the team also in French, Portuguese, Polish, Czech and Russian.
On how we work: on the feedstocks and fuels on this site we are a broker. We never take title, we do not trade our own book, and we are paid a commission on business that concludes. Additives are the one exception: those we also buy and sell for our own account, and we say in which capacity we are acting before you commit to anything. Either way you will hear it from us when the answer is no, or when your parcel is not ready for the conversation you want to have. A market read or a second opinion on a specification costs nothing and commits you to nothing.
Happy to look at whatever you have, even if it is half an analysis and a question.
+31 6 115 83 448
bart@sustainablecommodities.eu
Sustainable Commodities 3 B.V., Lemmer, the Netherlands
Ask about Prices & market reads
Specification, volume, location and certification are enough to start.
Or e-mail us directly: bart@sustainablecommodities.eu
Last reviewed 21 September 2026. Regulatory references are given for orientation and are not legal advice: verify against the current Official Journal text before contracting.